Cyclone Biparjoy is unexpectedly changing course. With a split forecast, the cyclone will threaten southern Pakistan Karachi, with a slight chance of heading toward Oman. This entire region is under direct threat of landfall, which is likely around the 13th of June.
Coastal areas are on alert after the Pakistan Meteorological Department provincial government warned that a cyclonic storm over the Arabian Sea would intensify over the next 24 hours. Cyclone Biparjoy estimates to be roughly 900 kilometers due south of Karachi on Saturday as the storm. Categorized as very severe continued on a north/north-eastward track.
Possible Impacts:
- With its probable approach to the southeast Sindh coast. Widespread wind-dust/thunderstorm rain with some very heavy/extremely heavy falls. Accompanied with squally winds of 80-100Km/hour likely in Thatta, Sujawal, Badin, Tharparker & Umerkot districts during 13-17 June
- Dust/thunderstorm-rain with few heavy falls & accompanied with squally winds of 60-80 Km/hour likely in Karachi, Hyderabad, Tando Muhammad Khan, Tando Allayar, Mirpurkhas districts from 13/14 June -16 June.
- Squally (high intensity) winds may cause damage to loose & vulnerable structures (Kutcha houses).
- Storm surge of 3-3.5 meters (8-12 feet) expected at the land falling point (Keti Bandar and around).
- Fishermen should not to venture into the open sea till the system is over by 17 June. As the Arabian Sea conditions may get very rough/high accompanied by high tides along the coast.
The PMD notices that there was an uncertainty in the “global models’ final track forecast” of the cyclone. With some taking it to the Makran-North Oman coast and others indicating it towards the Indian Gujarat-Sindh coast.
“Given the said uncertainty. The system predicts to keep tracking further north/northeastward during next 18-24 hours and then slightly recurve to North-northwest,” it said. The high intensity winds may cause damage to lose and vulnerable structures, the Met Office has cautioned. Storm surge of three meters (8-10 feet) can be possible.
Notably, the state-run Radio Pakistan has urged the people to stay away from shorelines. And follow local authorities’ guidance in any emergency situation. Authorities have also told fishing communities to halt operations for the next five days. Ahead of Cyclone Biparjoy which is categorised as a “very severe storm”.